Wow

He didn't look tired there, haha.

1-1, off to Orlando.

Has LeBron Hit the Wall?

Though I've occasionally brought up the possibility in conversation, I never actually believed it to be true. LeBron James is HUMAN. For years, I've lauded Kobe Bryant for his stamina, and marveled at James' unbelievable workload, but it seems that it's FINALLY caught up to him. To be fair, LeBron weighs in the area of 265 pounds and plays the game at a speed that Kobe simply can't match- in fact, few outside of Chris Paul and Leandro Barbosa can, and plays a much more active role in help defense. Combined with last years long playoff run and the Olympics, that's a lot of calories expended in the past year and half or so without any real layoff.

So, is he finally tiring out? I suspect he is, and that it's for the first time in his life. I've personally never seen him looking the way he has at the end of game 1 and near the end of the 3rd in game 2. There's simply no spring in his step. Any basketball player can relate to the feeling of "heavy feet" that inevitably comes with too many days playing for too many hours.

At some point, most players learn that you have to pace yourself. You simply can't go full steam 82 games a season (plus playoffs and international ball), 42+ minutes a game on offense AND defense without tiring by the end of the season. Even ironmen like Iverson took his breaks (on defense, unfortunately), while Kobe Bryant plays at a much more measured pace.

A valuable lesson for LeBron James, but one that could possibly cost him this years Championship. While I believe the Cavs will beat the Magic in 5 or 6 games, Cleveland will be unlikely to beat the Lakers or Nuggets without Lebron playing at full strength.

Of course, this could all be very premature. While there are definite signs, they aren't overwhelmingly convincing. Hopefully, this malaise is simply the cause of a couple of bad night's sleep or a flu he's kept hidden so we can all return to being Witnesses.

Lakers and Cavs

The obvious favorites for the finals are the Lakers and the Cavaliers.  Here's my breakdown of the matchup.

The Cavs- Mo Williams has proven to be a better player than I expected.  The same is true for Lebron (as mentioned in a previous post) as I didn't expect him to apply the effort on the defensive end that he has this year.  I attribute this to his Olympic experience.

However, despite Mo's obvious skills, the Cavaliers as simply TOO heavily dependent on Lebron.  While I'm not sure I could devise a method to slow him, I wouldn't put it past Tex Winters and Phil Jacksn to figure something out.  If they CAN find a method to slow him even a little bit, the Cavs will be in SERIOUS trouble.

The Lakers-

The Lakers are simply a more talented offensive team.  They downside is that they employ players who have defensive talent but not the mistake-free basketball IQ that you need in the playoffs.  Lamar Odom, for example, obvious has the athleticism and size to have a chance at slowing Lebron- not to mention Kobe.  However, Odom lacks the mental game to allow him to truly fluster James- a player with superior basketball IQ.  The same is true of Trevor Ariza. 

This, of course, leaves Kobe- a rather risky prospect considering the dangers of foul trouble and the emergence of a post game in the Detroit series.  I seriously doubt Kobe could handle LBJ backing down due to the weight and strength issues.

The Verdict

The keys, actually, are the bigs.  Pau Gasol will wear big Z ragged.  Varejao would be an obvious substitution but his offensive deficiencies could easily disrupt the Cavs offensive flow.  If Bynum's mental and offensive game round into shape, the Cavs bigs will be rather seriously outmatched.

The x-factor will be the way the Cacvs defend Kobe.  Delonte West is an obvious choice for early harassment, with James another obvious choice for his physique and skills.  If Lebron (or less likely, West) can slow Kobe 1 on 1, forcing the other Lakers to score in pressure situations repeatedly, the Cavs will have a rather significant advantage.

...and x-factor 2- Andrew Bynum.  His youth might allow him to be a force on the defensive boards with his superior size compared to Varejaoa and athleticism when compared to Ilgauskas.  His presence on the offensive and defensive glass along with some fast break baskets could be huge.